Marshall: Oil Spill Uncertainty, and What We Know So Far

May 07, 2010

By Bob Marshall

A small piece of the vast mat of oil in the Gulf, photographed by Tim Romano just 12 miles from the port of Venice, Louisiana.

Remember those movies about murder trails where the innocent guy is waiting for the jury to come back and tell him if he's going to live or die?

Remember how the hero can only sit there and sweat, hoping and praying fate delivers him and his family an unjust and untimely demise?

Remember how he constantly glances at the clock only to discover time is in slow motion, seconds stretching out like hours, hours like days, all the while glancing at that closed door wondering, fearing what might be going on beyond his control?

Now you know how sportsmen feel along the Louisiana coast and all across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It's been more than two weeks since BP's Deepwater Horizon well blew and began pumping 210,000 gallons of crude into the Gulf each day, more than 3.2 million gallons in all, with no real end in sight. Predictions of imminent doom last weekend passed thanks to a stiff storm, but the spill this week continued to grow, continued to shutter recreational and commercial fisheries, continued to pose the ultimate threat of poisoning the most productive estuary in the lower 48 states.

BP is racing to put stop-gap measures in place and hustling to drill a relief well. But there are no promises. At any moment the worst-case scenario (or should we call them worser-case scenarios?) could unfold: Thousands of acres of heavy crude could wash up on sensitive coastlines. Or the well could grow even wider, increasing the flow ten-fold.

Or a miracle could happen and the robots at work one mile below the surface could turn a valve that shuts the flow.

No one really knows.

"The worst thing about this is not knowing when it's going to end--and that it could get a hell of lot worse the next hour," said Glenn Sanchez, owner/operator of Breton Sound Marina, in Hopedale, Louisiana, on the side of the Mississippi delta that has been closed to all fishing--even catch-and-release--since April 30.

Things are pretty tough already for Sanchez. On a typical weekend in May, Sanchez would launch up to 100 sportsmen into the Louisiana marshes where spotted sea trout (specks) are beginning to spawn. Since the closure he's been making ends meet by launching media boats.

But he knows things could go bad to worse.

"If that heavy stuff comes in, our habitat could be ruined for a year or more, they tell me," he said. "We're talking hitting hard at specks, reds, ducks, oysters shrimp.

"But, man, we just don't know. It's just killing me."

Here's what we do know as the third weekend of the spill approaches:
1.) Heavy oil did begin washing up on in section of the Chandeleur-Breton Islands, a 50-mile chain of low sand beaches and mangroves running north-to-south between the eastern side of the Mississippi River delta and the Mississippi coast, about 30 miles east of the Louisiana marshes.

This chain is a major spring nesting ground for numerous terns, pelicans, ibis and other species, some of which are on the endangered species list. It's also usually a fabulous spring fishing ground that draws anglers from across the Gulf and nation.

2.) Thin oil sheens have entered Breton Sound and are inching toward the interior marshes that are nursery grounds for the Gulfs largest population of speckled trout, redfish, flounder black drum, shrimp, crabs, oysters and other species.

3.) The spill continues to stretch across the open Gulf, spreading toxic chemicals and heavy tars into areas that are considered important spawning spots for bluefin tuna, tarpon, king mackerel, redfish, snapper and other species. Eggs that are coated with oil will not become fish.

4.) As winds moved to the southeast, the growing spill the began stretching to the west side of the Mississippi River delta, raising fears another huge fishing area could be closed next week.

5.) Efforts to halt the spill continue along two main approaches.

BP this week began lowering the first of two huge concrete and steel "containment" boxes over the major leaks in the pipes on the floor of the Gulf. The hope is that the oil will flow into the boxes and can then be sucked up to surface ships while the final solution is put in place.

That solution is a relief well that is being drilled through 18,000 feet of rock to the oil deposit. Once completed, a heavier fluid will be pumped into the opening that, hopefully, will seal the reservoir.

Unfortunately, BP estimates that drilling job will take two to two and a half more months. Many Louisiana anglers don't know if they can handle the suspense.

"The waiting is killing me," said Sanchez.

Comments (16)

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from weswes088 wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

At least it seems like BP is really making an honest, fully committed effort to fix this disaster. As much as I hate big oil (and it grows every day - both my dislike and oil companies), I have to give them credit for that, especially if they are able to cap the leak with these containment boxes. Murphy's Law is always in effect, it seems: anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

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from jakenbake wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Sure they're trying to clean their mess up - they're terrified of what'll happen to them! At least this way they can point to their efforts and say "See, we tried to fix it, we just couldn't!" Whatever. I hope all of this isn't "too little, too late" but like Wes said - if something can go wrong, it probably will. I'm not holding my breath. Sorry.

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from AloneIntheWilderness wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Who cares what they're doing now, compared to what could have been done to prevent this. But you can't regulate a oil company (or a mining company or any other business); that's SOCIALISM! And we can't have that, can we?

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from thunderchicken wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Well I work in the gulf on a Drilling rig and I am sick and tired of the media blowing things way out of wack, yes indeed this is a major spill and the truth is no one will ever know what happen on the rig because the men on tour where the work was actually taking place are no longer around. It just seems like everyone forgot about the men that lost their lives and or more worried about the birds and turtles. I always hear that same comment as above. ( I am sick of big oil ) Why because they make millions of dollars in profits? What about the NFL or any other sports athlete that get paid millions for running around getting chased by other men? I mean isn’t that the reason any one goes into a business is to make a profit. If you listen to the news you would swear that the beaches here in Louisiana are covered with oil already. I flew out to come back on my rig yesterday and didn’t notice any oil. Truth is every one bashing the oil companies can not get by with out them.

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from baconboy206 wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

no, i hate oil and mining companys not because they make millions of dollars, but because they are destroying the enviroment and we are helping them. They dont give to shits about whats happening, they are just trying to save themselves so we dont hate them even more than we already do. Look at this proposed mine in western BC, the plan to deal with the tailings is to dump them into one of the best rainbow and kokanee lakes in the area and then clean it up with untested and unproven techniques. Then when they fail they can say "oh, well we tried" and move on to the next pristine ecosystem that they can ruin, all the locals are against and the local indian tribe has threatend war on the mine if it is put up, but they dont care.

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from YooperJack wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Anyone who says "I hate big oil" is a hypocrite if:

1) You heat your home with oil or gas.

2) You drive a car.

3) You ride in trains, planes buses or cabs.

4) Where you live or work has lights.

Face it, we survive because of oil. We can't produce it ourselves so we need this production from large oil companies. Back in the heyday, our beloved Governor Granholm demanded a massive excess profits tax on Exxon Mobil corporation. She was almost impeached! Apparently, a very large percentage of the state pension fund is in that company stock.

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from Walt Smith wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Yeah Yooper and just think, Obama was considering putting that dumb Canadian broad on the surpreme court.

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from AloneIntheWilderness wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

I don't think anyone has forgotten about the loss of life. Unless it's by someone in the boardroom of BP. And there is nothing wrong with making money, even making gobs and gobs of it, if you do it responsibly. From what I understand, and I may well be wrong, the leak, if not the explosion, could have been prevented with a little regulation. Apparently, the oil companies do most of the regulating for offshore rigs themselves. Isn't that kind of like letting the fox do the regulating of the hen houses?

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from thunderchicken wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

"Apparently, the oil companies do most of the regulating for offshore rigs themselves."....not at all....
If this were the case we would have been drilling off the east coast a long time ago. The fact is that we are regulated by the federal government and the possibility of the excat same thing happening again is possible on every single well we drill every day. But, it is also the case in an airline crash everytime you fly. Do you shut down all airlines because of a crash or an interstate because of a wreck? Just saying....

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from rock rat wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

OK it's my fault.

I figure someone needs to take responsiblity and I'm at least as guilty as anyone.

But I was just sick of sending that money overseas even if it is just down to Venuzula or next door to Mexico. The oil comes from the international market and I know the oil I buy from Venuzuala is affecting the coffers of the Mullahs in Saudi and Iran.

In my own defense I will say I've tried. Old house, burn wood mostly, no gas burnin toys, mostly I walk in the woods for fun looking for sign. My truck and bobcat burn it but not too much, diesel. Ten year old civic only has 40K.

But none the less it was me. If they have big hearings, and you know they will, just wait, your bound to see me, squity old geezer with too much sun on him.

I'm so old I didn't realize they did away with the anchors, kept thinking, gosh, who's workin the anchor boats. 5000 ft I guess they couldn't now could they.

I hope those old boys that got killed rest easy, and I hope they take care of their families.

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from AloneIntheWilderness wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

No one is talking about shutting down offshore drilling; at least I'm not. I'm talking about making it as safe as possible, even if it cuts into those billions and billions in profit a bit that oil companies have made the last few years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100506/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gulf_oil_spill_blowou...

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from Bob81 wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Alonein the woods,
You hit the nail on the head. We all recognize that at the moment we are heavily dependent on oil. I also don't begrudge the oil industry for trying to make a buck (or hundreds of millions). However, when you are conducting such a potentially dangerous activity to people, places, animals and the economy, you better take every safety precaution necessary. To do anything less is criminal...

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from jay wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Folks need to realize that once this oil hits the shoreline there is no way to effectively clean this oil. It will be soaked in and remain there forever. The beaches in Prince William Sound Alaska (Exxon valdez) are a testament to the devastation that oil spills. Today, you can go to any of the beaches that oil contaminated, dig a hole and what it fill with oil.

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from Mike Diehl wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Once again the F&S editor-bot seems to have some very flawed programming.

Short version. These problems are solvable by an aggressive move to support solar. We need a Federal bill that allows citizens to claim tax credits equal to 100% of their cost to install solar. It could be amortized over three years.

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from Mike Diehl wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

As for the gulf coast. A much bigger blowout happened in 1978. Ten times as large and it was uncapped for a year. In the Gulf. There were no permanent oil deposits on beaches as a result. Sunlight and bacteria work much faster in the gulf than in Prince William Sound.

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from ohiodeerhunter wrote 2 years 2 weeks ago

Mike Diehl

A 100% tax break on installing solar power systems would be great,but...think of how much it would add to our already out of control deficit.If that plan could be enacted without increasing the deficit,than I would be all for it.
If every home had a solar array,and a windmill,and a bank of batteries with an inverter to make the DC that is generated into the AC that all our homes run on,we would need far less power that is generated by burning fossil fuels.
Maybe we should start bringing ideas like this up to our elected representatives in the State and Fed. governments?

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