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Deeter's Fearless Fly Fishing Predictions for 2013

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December 03, 2012

Deeter's Fearless Fly Fishing Predictions for 2013

By Kirk Deeter

It's time to make my annual predictions for the fly fishing world in the coming year. But first, let's look back on last year's fishing predictions, and see how I did.

First, I said the Rockies would have a terrible water year. That was surely the case in the southern Rockies, though the northern Rockies did a bit better. 2012 was not only an extremely dry year, it had one of the worst wildfire seasons ever. I wish I had been wrong on that one.

I said three major manufacturers would start selling direct. Simms and Thomas & Thomas did. A few other, smaller companies did as well. Admittedly, that wasn't a wild prophecy, as those rumblings had been going on for months.

I said carp competitions would take off, and they did. From California to Denver to Montana and points east, carp tournaments attracted more anglers and raised more money for good causes than ever before.

I predicted that a U.S. manufacturer would break $1,000 for a graphite production rod, and we now have the Sage One Elite ($1,295).

Rods $200 or less would comprise the bulk of domestic sales in 2012. I don't have the data yet, but my friends in the industry say that's true. And more pricepoint products would be made in the United States—there are indeed some upstart companies making rods in America, like the Beaverkill Rod Company

I said the world record bonefish would be caught on a fly, and I whiffed on that one. You folks in Hawaii should have tried harder.

I also was wrong with my prediction that Tim Romano would fish 50 percent less this year, now that he and his wife Ellie have a baby daughter (Mabel). My misfire doesn't prove anything other than Romano has a very cool wife.

Lastly, I predicted that Sayfu would say I didn't know what I was talking about at least 100 times. That probably would have happened if Sayfu hadn't dropped off in production recently. Maybe he got tired.

Never fear, here are my 10 predictions for 2013, which should give all of you plenty of reason to wonder if I'm nuts or not.

1. We will have another dry winter, but an unusually wet spring and summer will save our bacon in the Rockies. Next year will be a banner fishing year from coast to coast. Admittedly, I'm just hopeful that '13 will not be unlucky.

2. Certain members of the "flat earth society" will use that as an argument that climate change is a myth, although they've told those who are worried about climate change that the recent trends of droughts and storms were anomalies.

3. By this time next year, at least three MORE major brands will sell direct. In fact, it will be such the norm in this industry that there will be only a handful of companies left that will use the fact that they don't sell direct as the key marketing platform to attract fly shop business.

4. Patagonia, Cortland and Thomas & Thomas will make dramatic gains in market prominence. At least one major rod company will go bust. And two others will be acquired by other companies.

5. 2013 will see more than a few companies start making and marketing worthy and interesting products for women anglers, going beyond the "pink it and shrink it" philosophy. Redington, Simms and Orvis are already leading the way.

6. Tenkara will continue to grow in popularity, proving it is not a fad.  In fact, Orvis is already selling Tenkara USA rods, and TFO is making its own. I expect at least two other companies to follow suit in producing a tenkara-style rod model.

7. Carp will continue to boom in terms of relevance and popularity, and a pretty cool new book called "Fly Fishing for Carp" will be released next spring. (Okay, that doesn't count as a prediction either. I have an inside scoop with that one.)

8. We'll see at least three new "online" fly fishing magazines pop up, which will replace the three that will go belly up.

9. Politicians of both parties will not, unfortunately, make the connection that to compete in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico, they should reconnect with the hunting and fishing heritage that people in those places (of all political persuasions) hold so dear.

10. And the fly fishing world record fish that will be caught in 2013: an all line class tarpon, off the Atlantic coast of central Africa.

Comments (26)

Top Rated
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from buckhunter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Congratulations on your upcoming book, Deet.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Thank you buckhunter, I will be sure to send you one.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from jaukulele wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Lookin' good. I may have to try one of these carp that I hear are getting so popular.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from capt.seagull wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

can i get the book for christmas just kidding all though it would be really cool, in fact awesome!!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Carp?..Tenkara rods? My GAWD! WE not only head over the fiscal cliff, but the flyfishing cliff as well. And MFGing companies would only have to sell to anyone, and allow their products to be marked down, and not demand that retailers sell at THEIR required price, or lose their product line, and more product would be moved...down right illegal price fixing the way it is now for many "pro-line products. And the bigger question is ...How many of those 100 thing you get wrong will you admit to getting wrong? That Sayfu sure does have his facts together when it comes to flyfishing.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from treelimit wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

It would appear that one political party is "competing" quite capably in at least four of the six states you mention, irrespective of the extent to which outdoors heritage is embraced.

On the bright side, perhaps Patagonia or Simms can facilitate the acceleration of the direct sales evolution with an IPCC flat-brimmed hat or UV Buff.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Well clinchknot... or Sayfu... (I'll just call you clinchfu from now on), I knew you didn't run out of gas.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Nothing wrong with pink gear, I get orders all the time for high end pink gear, seems that anti-pink movement is louder than the ones wanting pink. And I can't seem to lose hope in catching an all tackle world record wiper some where in CO.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I will make the same prediction I did last year. Paul will be on the cover of F&S. Let me explain why. If you really want to increase female fly fishers, have their kids fish. The mothers will naturally follow. Attract the dual incomes and go after the vacation budget of families. Trust me on this. I coached Little League Baseball for 15 years. Entire families will immerse themselves into the sport their child is interested in. Paul's All-American looks (no doubt from his mother) gracing the cover of F&S would be a step in the right direction. You already have a huge advantage, what kid does not like to fish?

Kold, Did you get yours? I got mine.

+2 Good Comment? | | Report
from zfisher wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Tenkara?! You are fearless, Kirk. I'm going the other way, I think folks will forget how to spell Tencara by the end of the year. That is unless they start using Panda Bears in their ads. Panda Bears would totally rock.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Fearless is my middle name... and besides, given my decent scorecard from last year, I should have another year before the Fly Talk nation calls bull on these predictions. I actually think the Tenkara trend is one of my safest bets. But I wholeheartedly agree with the Panda marketing idea.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from FlyFishilicious wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I like prediction #5 :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Deeter..Clinchfu...I SMILE :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Not yet Buck, soon!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ejunk wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I predict that you guys will forgot to pick the winners of at least a half dozen caption contests (etc).

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I thought they covered them all ejunk....what date was it that they missed?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Good to focus in why Deeter thinks his Tenkara prediction is the safest. It is because of the "dumbing down" of America. The lack of motivation to learn something well that takes time, and effort. You see it on many of these posts. The flyrod question is asked regarding the difficulty of managing the flyrod, and posts are made to leave the flyrod at home, and bring your spinning gear. Push comes to shove, many chose the worm. Not saying it is the wrong choice, just saying why we are seeing a decline in flyfishing enthusiasm.

-1 Good Comment? | | Report
from timromano wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

yup, all caption contests have been account for. You just need to look a little harder ejunk. ;)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Clinchknot - reading your blurbs, although it is text, it comes across in my mind like Mrs. Donovan from Peanuts.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from ejunk wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

the "best tailwater" contest. I can't find anything about that one. I tried including a link but kept getting a "post may not contain obscene words" warning. my "half dozen" comment was intentionally harsh and it worked: you responded. :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from sgtsly wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

missed 2 switch rods.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from treelimit wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I feel your pain, ejunk. The "obscene words" canard is the bane of the wordy commenter. You haven't lived until you've loving crafted an evisceration of a typically hysterical polemic at The Conservationist only to have it take a dump upon pressing "submit" despite being obscenity free.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from wildernessguy wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Considering Hardy & Greys is up for sale #4 is not so drastic, well at least the last part isn't. Most of those are fairly reasonable predictions, #9 is a given, but I think you will be proven wrong on #10, 286 lbs 9oz will be hard to beat.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

koldkut. Never read Mrs. Donovan from peanuts. Guess I spent too much time learning how to flyfish.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from markmarko50 wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I caught my first carp on a fly in 1963 while my dad and brothers were jump shooting ducks and Pheasants in an area known as Winchester waste-way in Eastern Washington state. I was fishing for Bluegill and these horrible (NOT) fish kept hitting my flies, I caught about 6 carp and 20 Bluegill, before all my flies were used up, and tore to shreds...I am interested in learning if more people in my area have had the same experiences, as I might like to see some tournaments up here in the great Northwest.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 18 weeks ago

MarkMarko. Hunted and fished the Winchester Wasteways for years. Remember MarDon Marina? And you might have remembered the O'Sullivan Grange hunting club..not an exclusive club, but a visible permit for pheasant hunting you wore on your back, and they provided you many, many farms to hunt on, and the Grange Hall members fed you a great breakfast on the opener. Those were the days. And there are days when carp will take dry flies. Sounds like maybe that was your situation.

0 Good Comment? | | Report

Post a Comment

from buckhunter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I will make the same prediction I did last year. Paul will be on the cover of F&S. Let me explain why. If you really want to increase female fly fishers, have their kids fish. The mothers will naturally follow. Attract the dual incomes and go after the vacation budget of families. Trust me on this. I coached Little League Baseball for 15 years. Entire families will immerse themselves into the sport their child is interested in. Paul's All-American looks (no doubt from his mother) gracing the cover of F&S would be a step in the right direction. You already have a huge advantage, what kid does not like to fish?

Kold, Did you get yours? I got mine.

+2 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Well clinchknot... or Sayfu... (I'll just call you clinchfu from now on), I knew you didn't run out of gas.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Clinchknot - reading your blurbs, although it is text, it comes across in my mind like Mrs. Donovan from Peanuts.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Congratulations on your upcoming book, Deet.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Thank you buckhunter, I will be sure to send you one.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from jaukulele wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Lookin' good. I may have to try one of these carp that I hear are getting so popular.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from capt.seagull wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

can i get the book for christmas just kidding all though it would be really cool, in fact awesome!!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Carp?..Tenkara rods? My GAWD! WE not only head over the fiscal cliff, but the flyfishing cliff as well. And MFGing companies would only have to sell to anyone, and allow their products to be marked down, and not demand that retailers sell at THEIR required price, or lose their product line, and more product would be moved...down right illegal price fixing the way it is now for many "pro-line products. And the bigger question is ...How many of those 100 thing you get wrong will you admit to getting wrong? That Sayfu sure does have his facts together when it comes to flyfishing.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from treelimit wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

It would appear that one political party is "competing" quite capably in at least four of the six states you mention, irrespective of the extent to which outdoors heritage is embraced.

On the bright side, perhaps Patagonia or Simms can facilitate the acceleration of the direct sales evolution with an IPCC flat-brimmed hat or UV Buff.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Nothing wrong with pink gear, I get orders all the time for high end pink gear, seems that anti-pink movement is louder than the ones wanting pink. And I can't seem to lose hope in catching an all tackle world record wiper some where in CO.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from zfisher wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Tenkara?! You are fearless, Kirk. I'm going the other way, I think folks will forget how to spell Tencara by the end of the year. That is unless they start using Panda Bears in their ads. Panda Bears would totally rock.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Fearless is my middle name... and besides, given my decent scorecard from last year, I should have another year before the Fly Talk nation calls bull on these predictions. I actually think the Tenkara trend is one of my safest bets. But I wholeheartedly agree with the Panda marketing idea.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from FlyFishilicious wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I like prediction #5 :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Deeter..Clinchfu...I SMILE :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Not yet Buck, soon!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ejunk wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I predict that you guys will forgot to pick the winners of at least a half dozen caption contests (etc).

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I thought they covered them all ejunk....what date was it that they missed?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from timromano wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

yup, all caption contests have been account for. You just need to look a little harder ejunk. ;)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ejunk wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

the "best tailwater" contest. I can't find anything about that one. I tried including a link but kept getting a "post may not contain obscene words" warning. my "half dozen" comment was intentionally harsh and it worked: you responded. :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from sgtsly wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

missed 2 switch rods.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from treelimit wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I feel your pain, ejunk. The "obscene words" canard is the bane of the wordy commenter. You haven't lived until you've loving crafted an evisceration of a typically hysterical polemic at The Conservationist only to have it take a dump upon pressing "submit" despite being obscenity free.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from wildernessguy wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Considering Hardy & Greys is up for sale #4 is not so drastic, well at least the last part isn't. Most of those are fairly reasonable predictions, #9 is a given, but I think you will be proven wrong on #10, 286 lbs 9oz will be hard to beat.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

koldkut. Never read Mrs. Donovan from peanuts. Guess I spent too much time learning how to flyfish.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from markmarko50 wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

I caught my first carp on a fly in 1963 while my dad and brothers were jump shooting ducks and Pheasants in an area known as Winchester waste-way in Eastern Washington state. I was fishing for Bluegill and these horrible (NOT) fish kept hitting my flies, I caught about 6 carp and 20 Bluegill, before all my flies were used up, and tore to shreds...I am interested in learning if more people in my area have had the same experiences, as I might like to see some tournaments up here in the great Northwest.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 18 weeks ago

MarkMarko. Hunted and fished the Winchester Wasteways for years. Remember MarDon Marina? And you might have remembered the O'Sullivan Grange hunting club..not an exclusive club, but a visible permit for pheasant hunting you wore on your back, and they provided you many, many farms to hunt on, and the Grange Hall members fed you a great breakfast on the opener. Those were the days. And there are days when carp will take dry flies. Sounds like maybe that was your situation.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from clinchknot wrote 1 year 19 weeks ago

Good to focus in why Deeter thinks his Tenkara prediction is the safest. It is because of the "dumbing down" of America. The lack of motivation to learn something well that takes time, and effort. You see it on many of these posts. The flyrod question is asked regarding the difficulty of managing the flyrod, and posts are made to leave the flyrod at home, and bring your spinning gear. Push comes to shove, many chose the worm. Not saying it is the wrong choice, just saying why we are seeing a decline in flyfishing enthusiasm.

-1 Good Comment? | | Report

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