


August 29, 2012
Study: World Population Increase Could Force Us to be Vegetarians by 2050
By Chad Love
A looming worldwide water shortage may force us all to become vegetarians by 2050, according to a new study.
From this story in the (UK) Guardian:
Leading water scientists have issued one of the sternest warnings yet about global food supplies, saying that the world's population may have to switch almost completely to a vegetarian diet over the next 40 years to avoid catastrophic shortages. Humans derive about 20% of their protein from animal-based products now, but this may need to drop to just 5% to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive by 2050, according to research by some of the world's leading water scientists. "There will not be enough water available on current croplands to produce food for the expected 9 billion population in 2050 if we follow current trends and changes towards diets common in western nations," the report by Malik Falkenmark and colleagues at the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) said.
According to the story, a meat-based diet consumes five to ten times more water than a largely vegetarian diet, and with one-third of the world's arable cropland already used to grow feed for animals, the world simply doesn't have enough resources to continue that trend for the two billion or so new mouths expected to be needing food by 2050.
Now, that is certainly a provocative assertion, and you can argue the merits (or lack thereof) of this study until you're blue in the face, but the fact is, the world is in something of a sticky wicket, sustenance-wise. Commodity prices are sky-high, worldwide stocks are low, and sustained drought and other various and sundry weird weather is turning (for lack of a better term) "food bleakness" into something of the new normal. And while we, as proud hunter-gatherers, like to (sometimes a little too smugly) brag about how much we're unaffected by the whims of food prices due to all that wild game we eat, that's bollocks, really. The truth is, we, as hunters and anglers are just as dependent on the whims and vagaries of the worldwide food system as any non-hunting supermarket-dependent urban dweller.
Don't believe me? Just ask any midwestern or plains state bird hunter what's happening in the nation's breadbasket. Ground that hasn't seen a plow for decades (and probably with good reason) is being turned over and converted to farmland at a pace that is beyond breathtaking. In fact, 23 million acres of fallow grassland have been converted to crop production in the past five years.
To put that in perspective, that's an area about the size of the state of Indiana. How much upland bird, waterfowl and deer habitat do you think that is? And in addition, beyond habitat loss, how do you think skyrocketing food prices are going to affect game and fish populations? We're already seeing an increase in hunting and fishing activity in this country.
Do you really think that increased interest can be attributed to those silly television hunting shows, or does a lousy economy and higher meat prices have more and more people eying all that free-range protein out there? Now multiply that by a factor of ten, or twenty, if meat prices keep going up (and just ask any cattle rancher about that...). How do you think that increased pressure is going to affect your hunting?
The point is, as easy as it is, we just can't scoff at or laugh off newspaper headlines about the whole world going veg, because as ludicrous as it sounds, the underlying issues that lead scientists to make such assertions are distinctly not. And as much we like to deny it, the future of hunting and fishing in America will be in some part shaped by external factors, and may end up being vastly different than what it looks like today.
The question is, what should we do about it? Is there anything we can do about it?
Comments (27)
I ain't worried. By 2050 they'll be able to grow ribeye steaks from a petri dish.
I wouldn't be to worried about it in the states. The article talks about the whole world, so we might just have to let Africa and all the other 3rd world places fend for themselves for a while.
Yuck another 2 billion people.
Haha, I like how the solution to the problem is that everyone should become vegetarian. And in a way, you're supporting farmers plowing up CRP to feed the world. America was suppose to have the largest corn crop in history if it wasn't for the drought. With seed companies trying to produce 300 an acre bushel of corn all we need is two, maybe three years of good summer growing conditions and we will bounce back and drive the corn prices back down.
Haha, I like how the solution to the problem is that everyone should become vegetarian. And in a way, you're supporting farmers plowing up CRP to feed the world. America was suppose to have the largest corn crop in history if it wasn't for the drought. With seed companies trying to produce 300 an acre bushel of corn all we need is two, maybe three years of good summer growing conditions and we will bounce back and drive the corn prices back down.
I always figured the world has a cap to the amount of life it can sustain. when it nears thats disease we havent herd or seen of in years reintroduces itself. look at china the most poulated place in the world, a sars outbreak started there a few years back, don t think it will happen again?
There's always cannibalism...
sounds to me like there could be some sort of population control... yes it would remove some immediate personal freedom, but for the better good of the planet I guess I would buy into it...
The thing is that all of the hyper-yield seed varietals (corn, soybean, etc.) require the careful application of fertilizers to reach their maximum potential. Unfortunately, certain elements present in fertilizer mixes--namely potash--are either impossible or prohibitively expensive to synthesize. Thus, once we use up our natural deposits, we are pretty much--well, you know. And from what I've read, "peak potash" isn't all that far down the road.
A few points then I'll shut up
-The world doesn't have a food production problem; it was a food distribution problem.
-Properly used and managed, livestock grazing can enhance and promote better wildlife habitat.
-Most of the undeveloped land left is rangeland, completely unsuitable for farming.
-It will be free market innovations, technology and American generosity that will save the world from starvation…wait it already is.
-The world doesn’t need violent swings from one extreme to the other, it needs balance.
-And last, are we really going to trust the vision of our future to a Socialist country like Sweden? Really Chad? I do like how you refer to the report as a story though.
And I agree with njschneider, two good growing seasons and this will all be forgotten.
Population stabilization should be part of the solution. According to new research by the Guttmacher Institute, there are 222 million women around the world who want to end or delay their childbearing but don't have access to affordable, effective contraception. Here in the United States, half of all pregnancies are unplanned. The United Nations projects that we could hit 11 billion people by 2050 -- 4 billion more than we have now. That's a LOT of food. It just makes sense to support voluntary family planning programs -- both for people and our planet. You can learn more at populationconnection.org
We are nearing peak everything and that includes the fossil fuels that make agriculture in industrial nations possible. We are also going to be coming up short on phosphorus and potash as mentioned by another commenter. The human population trajectory is one well known to ecologists, biologists and range managers as an outbreak-crash curve. Even if we could stabilize population there are not enough resources left to sustain present levels of population and consumption. We need a declining population to match are declining resources. Unfortunately a lot of people on this planet are going to starve and are starving currently. It will only get worse. Humans were a big-brained evolutionary fluke with dire consequences for the planet, nature and ultimately for themselves.
Quinton, I will give you a pass due to your age and not knowing any better, with your comment. Lets put it nice and sweet when we talk eugenics, people have to go and you could be one of the unfortunate to go, "for the good of the planet". You should research eugenics and think about what you just said and the ramifications of subscribing to it!
Malthus2, In school I was taught and I'm sure you were taught that fossil fuels were created from decaying living organisms such as dinosaurs and plant matter. If this is true then fossil fuels will never go away because it is being recreated every milsecond of everyday. Just as new soil is being produced the same way. My teacher and I'm sure your teacher taught you it took millions of years to produce soil and it may very well be true, but it doesn't mean 500 million years ago the earth quite making soil. Correct?
Amy, I'm pretty sure this is not the site you should be on. I think your looking for Huffpo, where the fight over contreception and the evil republicans want control over your body and reproductive system. Your a sick person! NO ONE WINS WITH EUGENICS!
Amy, I'm pretty sure this is not the site you should be on. I think your looking for Huffpo, where the fight over contreception and the evil republicans want control over your body and reproductive system. Your a sick person! No one wins with eugenics!
Can anyone tell me what happen to people? Especially the writers on this site.
Savageshot, has a point, earth tends to heal itself pretty easily and it will do so once we pass optimal capacity. Could the AIDS "epidemic" in Africa be the earth cleaning itself? If so tell Brad Pitt and all the other bleeding hearts to stop trying to help because they are fighting against the earth they also support!
Well...if the problem is water usage, we could stop wasting water making engine-harming ethanol! Freeing up that corn might make a difference in food prices, too.
'Population Stabilizaion should be part of the solution" Sounds like people should just learn to keep their legs closed.
This is insane. Who are the ones that come up with this? The same ones that predict the date and year the world is gonna end? Hell, by 2050 the world is probable gonna end... 8, 10, maybe 12 times. I'm as concerned about that as much as I am about this. Won't happen.
Irresponsible and selfish families like the TV's Duggards, with that circus of 19 babies; shouldn't be commended or praised. That family alone probably raises corn prices and puts a huge drain on the grid.
all species has a carrying capacity. they can overshoot the carrying capacity but only for so long before their numbers crash back down due to a limiting resource
why is it our problem if the rest of the world starves to death.....we have enough water, land, meat....when they all starve to death..look at all the good land we will be able to spread ouot to!!
2050 is quite a ways off. If you think back 40 or 50 years gas was cheap cars were not efficient. Herpes was more of a concern than aids [what's that]. Jet planes had less computing power than today's cars. Khrushchev was the big threat. Remember "duck and cover". Today his son has a fellowship in Brown University. All am saying is that no one posses that sort of foresight and there are worse things than a Broccoli sandwich. As far as America being the land of plenty 97% of your Shrimp Cocktail isn't caught within 2500 miles of Forest Gump. Among other imports too numerous to mention. So we are not an island. As far as thinning the herd some of the older ways would be an air born pandemic like the Flu in the 1920's or maybe WWIII. I can only leave you with this "Men plan and God laughs".
only 2 billion more in 40 years? there were 2 billion more from 1984 to 2004. I know that as the prices are going up I can't afford much store bought meat, certainly nothing like when my parents were my age. Who would have thought scrap meat like sausage would be $4-5 a pound.
Stop rutting, people. You know there isn't enough room or resources. Unless you are like Romney and don't believe in facts...
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Yuck another 2 billion people.
I always figured the world has a cap to the amount of life it can sustain. when it nears thats disease we havent herd or seen of in years reintroduces itself. look at china the most poulated place in the world, a sars outbreak started there a few years back, don t think it will happen again?
Well...if the problem is water usage, we could stop wasting water making engine-harming ethanol! Freeing up that corn might make a difference in food prices, too.
Irresponsible and selfish families like the TV's Duggards, with that circus of 19 babies; shouldn't be commended or praised. That family alone probably raises corn prices and puts a huge drain on the grid.
I wouldn't be to worried about it in the states. The article talks about the whole world, so we might just have to let Africa and all the other 3rd world places fend for themselves for a while.
Quinton, I will give you a pass due to your age and not knowing any better, with your comment. Lets put it nice and sweet when we talk eugenics, people have to go and you could be one of the unfortunate to go, "for the good of the planet". You should research eugenics and think about what you just said and the ramifications of subscribing to it!
'Population Stabilizaion should be part of the solution" Sounds like people should just learn to keep their legs closed.
This is insane. Who are the ones that come up with this? The same ones that predict the date and year the world is gonna end? Hell, by 2050 the world is probable gonna end... 8, 10, maybe 12 times. I'm as concerned about that as much as I am about this. Won't happen.
Haha, I like how the solution to the problem is that everyone should become vegetarian. And in a way, you're supporting farmers plowing up CRP to feed the world. America was suppose to have the largest corn crop in history if it wasn't for the drought. With seed companies trying to produce 300 an acre bushel of corn all we need is two, maybe three years of good summer growing conditions and we will bounce back and drive the corn prices back down.
Haha, I like how the solution to the problem is that everyone should become vegetarian. And in a way, you're supporting farmers plowing up CRP to feed the world. America was suppose to have the largest corn crop in history if it wasn't for the drought. With seed companies trying to produce 300 an acre bushel of corn all we need is two, maybe three years of good summer growing conditions and we will bounce back and drive the corn prices back down.
A few points then I'll shut up
-The world doesn't have a food production problem; it was a food distribution problem.
-Properly used and managed, livestock grazing can enhance and promote better wildlife habitat.
-Most of the undeveloped land left is rangeland, completely unsuitable for farming.
-It will be free market innovations, technology and American generosity that will save the world from starvation…wait it already is.
-The world doesn’t need violent swings from one extreme to the other, it needs balance.
-And last, are we really going to trust the vision of our future to a Socialist country like Sweden? Really Chad? I do like how you refer to the report as a story though.
And I agree with njschneider, two good growing seasons and this will all be forgotten.
We are nearing peak everything and that includes the fossil fuels that make agriculture in industrial nations possible. We are also going to be coming up short on phosphorus and potash as mentioned by another commenter. The human population trajectory is one well known to ecologists, biologists and range managers as an outbreak-crash curve. Even if we could stabilize population there are not enough resources left to sustain present levels of population and consumption. We need a declining population to match are declining resources. Unfortunately a lot of people on this planet are going to starve and are starving currently. It will only get worse. Humans were a big-brained evolutionary fluke with dire consequences for the planet, nature and ultimately for themselves.
Amy, I'm pretty sure this is not the site you should be on. I think your looking for Huffpo, where the fight over contreception and the evil republicans want control over your body and reproductive system. Your a sick person! NO ONE WINS WITH EUGENICS!
I ain't worried. By 2050 they'll be able to grow ribeye steaks from a petri dish.
There's always cannibalism...
Malthus2, In school I was taught and I'm sure you were taught that fossil fuels were created from decaying living organisms such as dinosaurs and plant matter. If this is true then fossil fuels will never go away because it is being recreated every milsecond of everyday. Just as new soil is being produced the same way. My teacher and I'm sure your teacher taught you it took millions of years to produce soil and it may very well be true, but it doesn't mean 500 million years ago the earth quite making soil. Correct?
Amy, I'm pretty sure this is not the site you should be on. I think your looking for Huffpo, where the fight over contreception and the evil republicans want control over your body and reproductive system. Your a sick person! No one wins with eugenics!
Can anyone tell me what happen to people? Especially the writers on this site.
all species has a carrying capacity. they can overshoot the carrying capacity but only for so long before their numbers crash back down due to a limiting resource
why is it our problem if the rest of the world starves to death.....we have enough water, land, meat....when they all starve to death..look at all the good land we will be able to spread ouot to!!
2050 is quite a ways off. If you think back 40 or 50 years gas was cheap cars were not efficient. Herpes was more of a concern than aids [what's that]. Jet planes had less computing power than today's cars. Khrushchev was the big threat. Remember "duck and cover". Today his son has a fellowship in Brown University. All am saying is that no one posses that sort of foresight and there are worse things than a Broccoli sandwich. As far as America being the land of plenty 97% of your Shrimp Cocktail isn't caught within 2500 miles of Forest Gump. Among other imports too numerous to mention. So we are not an island. As far as thinning the herd some of the older ways would be an air born pandemic like the Flu in the 1920's or maybe WWIII. I can only leave you with this "Men plan and God laughs".
only 2 billion more in 40 years? there were 2 billion more from 1984 to 2004. I know that as the prices are going up I can't afford much store bought meat, certainly nothing like when my parents were my age. Who would have thought scrap meat like sausage would be $4-5 a pound.
The thing is that all of the hyper-yield seed varietals (corn, soybean, etc.) require the careful application of fertilizers to reach their maximum potential. Unfortunately, certain elements present in fertilizer mixes--namely potash--are either impossible or prohibitively expensive to synthesize. Thus, once we use up our natural deposits, we are pretty much--well, you know. And from what I've read, "peak potash" isn't all that far down the road.
Savageshot, has a point, earth tends to heal itself pretty easily and it will do so once we pass optimal capacity. Could the AIDS "epidemic" in Africa be the earth cleaning itself? If so tell Brad Pitt and all the other bleeding hearts to stop trying to help because they are fighting against the earth they also support!
Stop rutting, people. You know there isn't enough room or resources. Unless you are like Romney and don't believe in facts...
Population stabilization should be part of the solution. According to new research by the Guttmacher Institute, there are 222 million women around the world who want to end or delay their childbearing but don't have access to affordable, effective contraception. Here in the United States, half of all pregnancies are unplanned. The United Nations projects that we could hit 11 billion people by 2050 -- 4 billion more than we have now. That's a LOT of food. It just makes sense to support voluntary family planning programs -- both for people and our planet. You can learn more at populationconnection.org
sounds to me like there could be some sort of population control... yes it would remove some immediate personal freedom, but for the better good of the planet I guess I would buy into it...
Post a Comment