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Ten Fly Fishing Predictions for the New Year

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December 29, 2011

Ten Fly Fishing Predictions for the New Year

By Kirk Deeter

It's time to gaze into the crystal ball and and make my predictions for the sport of fly fishing in the coming year. 2011 was a challenge for some, with lingering sluggishness in the economy, unusually high water throughout much of the country, and only a few really great new products to drive the market. Still, we saw some records fall, fishing in the Gulf Coast rebounded nicely from the oil spill, many guides I know reported boom seasons (once the water was right), and holiday sales seem to have added some year-end cheer for many in the industry.

Looking downstream, here's what I see in 2012:

1.) Based on the snowpack so far in the Rockies (and what I hear from my water manager friends), we're looking at an almost total reversal from last year. Where there were floods, there will be very low flows. I sure hope things pick up on the moisture front. When will Mother Nature give us a nice, balanced water year?

2.) Last year, Redington announced it will be selling products directly through its website. In 2012, I expect at least three other major companies to follow suit. I'm not talking about the small brands. I'm talking about major players.

3.) Fly fishing will see successful competitions happen that will actually promote the sport. Only they won't revolve around trout. (We tried, but it's hard to find a fair and legitimate format; one-flies are for fun). And they won't revolve around bass. (That market is already cornered, and the bass people don't want us). It's going to revolve around carp fishing with flies. Just you watch.

4.) Some manufacturer will break the mythical $1000 (US) barrier for a fly rod made of graphite. It will be billed as a very, very special graphite rod, mind you, but the jury is still out on whether or not that will fly.

5.) Meanwhile, perfectly workable rods that cost $200 or less will sell more than anything else.

6.) More low pricepoint products will be made in America and marketed effectively.

7.) About 75 fly shops will go to Reno, Nevada, to take part in a trade show at the end of the summer. Then afterward, the manufacturers and reps will slap themselves on their backs and say they see "new energy" with the show, when what they're really thinking is that they do all their business away from the show, and wonder why they even bother anymore. (That's not really a prediction, that's just what happens every year at the trade show).

8.) The world record bonefish will be caught on a fly, somewhere in the Hawaiian Islands.

9.) Tim Romano will fish at least 50 percent less than he did in 2011. (His wife is due with their first child any day now.)

10.) Sayfu will tell me that I don't know what I'm talking about at least 100 times. But we'll all still have fun, catch fish and trade info on Fly Talk.

Happy New Year everyone!

Comments (27)

Top Rated
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from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I only tell you that you don't know what you are talking about when you demonstrate you do not know what you are talking about. Maybe in 2012 that will be minimize some.
Successful carp competitions..sounds like the industry may have found their competitive nitch...it ain't trout.
Our snow levels are down, and that is fine with me. We have enough water to hold us over for next year. Keeping water levels up over the Winter in a favorite section of the SF of mine will mean more fish come this season.
And fly gear getting competitive pricing over the net? Had to happen. I thought it would happen long ago. It has been price fixing having manufacturers tell the flyshops they have to sell their product at a price fixed by the mfger's, or they can't carry the product. And not allowing outlets to even carry their products. Tough economic times, and the mfgers have to move product.
More low price point product made in USA? I question that one, and how good it would be for America..but we will see.

-1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Blue Ox wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict that i'll learn how to tie my own flies- and maybe even get a day or two that i don't hook my hat or shirt...

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Blue Ox...Anyone can learn to tie them. It is how high you want your standards to be. How good of fly creations do you accept. Make the commitment, and you can easily do it. Fly casting can also be learned relatively easily. And again, you need to not only learn to make a tight looped cast fairly accurately, but proceed beyond that, and learn a few specialty fly presentation casts that go a long way to catching fish.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ckRich wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Happy New Year, Deeter!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Hoski wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Thanks for the look into our future K.D.
Truthfully, aren't you concerned Fu may go for your job?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict Koldkut and I will fish together next year. I will land a muskie on a fly. TU and Halliburton will have a gun battle over oil drilling in Ohio. I will snag myself past the barb. Somebody, somewhere, will get smart and take advantage of a child's inherent love of fishing and market fly fishing gear for children. Ohio State will beat Michigan. The number of states banning felt will double. Romano will become the proud father of a very healthy baby boy and give him the middle name of "buckhunter". Cermele will seek revenge and out fish me next year. Paul will catch a monster trout on a fly and will appear on the front of F&S magazine. And last but not least, Fly Talk will have another great season with interesting blogs and informative post. Happy New Year to All.

+5 Good Comment? | | Report
from weedless97 wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict that Maine State Record Largemouth will be caught in Lake Damariscotta!

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict there will be an industry upswing in stillwater fly fishing with long switch rods with various line heads and types. The film tours will not have very many offerings that I will like since we've all seen every other guy out there fishing for fish that are un-atinable to most. The percentage of new fishers in the sport being introduced to trout will drop and the number throwing stillwater offerings for "rough" fish will increase in following. And yes, Buck and I will fish together, I predict that as well.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

and.....I predict that I will see "A River Runs Through It" this year....

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I'm in agreement with almost every one of Buckhunter's predictions. Almost. (Romano and Ellie are having a girl.)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Congrats Tim and Ellie! My granddaughter came into this world on 12/12/11. Makes you think double about what we leave our children. The future of fly fishing is ours to mold. How exciting is that?

+2 Good Comment? | | Report
from Joe Demalderis wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Happy New Year Kirk and congratulations to Tim!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from fflutterffly wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict I'll finally meet Deeter at IceOut 2012. That Romano will out do himself with new motivation. Sayfu will get more negative votes then in 2011, I'll change 1/2 back into positive. (sometimes he's right!) I predict I'll be learning more and more and more! And finally, I predict the world will not end or begin to end on Dec. 21, 2012.

More importantly, I wish you all the greatest of success, the most interesting of discussions, the best of heath, continuous fish and more adventures.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Chad Miller wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Deeter,
The 1000.00 mark as a production rod has already been done. Do you remember Richard Sanderson's Hardy Angel rod at 1400.00. He told me on a trip that the titanium parts were being made by some Russian machinist who was the fore most authority on titanium machining or something like that. Myself and Tim's best friend fished it together in the Bahamas. Nuff said
I am going to miss Richard!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Levi Allen wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

1. Michigan will beat Ohio State. End of story. Ohio state will be rebuilding for a year or two. Great coach pick-up though.

2. I would love to see#6 come true, keep us updated on that one. I need to know these things when the wife gives me my allowance!

3. #5 is true. I have switched to all Ross rods. The only one I have broke was a 3wt that happened to run into a Coho Salmon. They are tuff rods that handle as good as any Sage I have every cast.

4. The robots wanna make chicken, it's thier hidden passion.

5. Last of all, the "end of the world" is "supposedly" going to happen, and I keep hearing it may be a "zombie apocolypse", time to stock up on some Hornady Zombie max ammo

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

flutterfly...good to see you will get your feet on the ground this year. To continue the learning process, please understand you need to get good info to learn. Please let me know when I am wrong. I welcome that. No one seems to want to venture forth on that note.
And Michigan should win for several years anyway. The latest additional sanctions by the NCAA, and Meyer's said, "Were a punch in the gut..no bowl game, and 9 scholarships taken away...the kiss of death. Switch rods on still waters?...made for moving water to reposition your line. Don't see them as having any application on still waters. Want an 11ft rod in your small lake boat, or float, or pontoon boat? And the technical advancements in fly rods? Who is ahead of the curve on technology? SAGE is the leader...at the top of the curve.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

A remark concerning technology and the $1000 fly rod: When technology improves we will buy a $1000 fly rod for $500. When marketing improves we buy a $500 fly rod for $1000.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

buckhunter...When the $1.000 rod can only be sold in the fly shops for $1,000, or you lose your right to carry them, then they will stay at $1,000 price point. When competition is allowed to take place, and other outlets can carry them, then the price will come way down.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Riverrat57 wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

#11. Louie will become so proficient at fly-fishing in 2012, that he won't want to do anything else and will promote the sport in the world of bass fishing whether the world of bass fishing likes it or not. Thanks Kirk for that "Little Red Book"!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Rhythm Rider wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

#10 is pretty funny. I predict Sayfu starts up his own blog somewhere (unless I've missed it). My condolences to Tim's 2012 fishing season, but I'm sure it'll be worth it. As for a $1000 rod!!!! Some people have more money, and fewer children than I. I'll stick with the under $200 crowd. As for the trade shows, they're not about doing business but getting hammered with others in your trade asking "where are the customers" or stating "complete waste of money and time....see you next year"? Thanks for the predictions, and flytalk.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Rythm Rider...HMMMM You just may have something there. Maybe call the blog..."Gettin it Right" I have visions of operating it like the Joe Pine radio show years ago. Anyone remember Joe Pine? It was the most popular show on the air, and led to other shows with that kinda "in your face" format. Someone in the audience would make a comment to Joe, and if it was an off the wall dimbulb comment, Joe would call them up to the docket, and ream the guy...verbally lambaste the guy. We'd get this fishin and hunting stuff right! No Mr. Nice guy! No pain, no gain. I may have to slap myself up side the head once in awhile. :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from backcast wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Sayfu a blogger? It'd be a blog with no followers, LOL! Fu's sphere of influence begins and ends here, commenting on what others have to say. He's a sidekick to the straight man at best, kind of like what Flavor Flave was to Chuck D, Ed Norton to Ralphie Boy. Then again, who knows? Fu's like that crazy uncle everybody has, spewing whackness to everyone's amusement. Go for it, Fu!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Toner Mitchell wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Thanks to #2, you will not see a bunch of #4 on the racks in fly shops. Rack space will be taken up by #5. Fly shops might make it in the end.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Shannon Drawe wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

I love number 6! China-Mart folks, like myself, are beginning to understand that cheaper (spelled Chinese / Korean) is not better for America. Try keeping more money in the US and see what happens to our economy and world status. And if we go even a step further, and buy locally made, or locally grown produce - we don't just keep the money in the US, we keep it in our respective communities. My campaign slogan; Buy American 2012. The Chicken Fried Nation demands it!

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

backcast...no followers? Do you have any idea how many folks out there have a screw loose? And Shannon..Please! You are totally ECON 101 deficit. Ever see how full a WalMart parking lot is. Have a clue as to why? You want people paying how much more for the goods they need?..many on fixed incomes, or low incomes that desperately need them? When a product sells like they do in WalMart how many folks do you think benefit? Maybe the dock workers that unload the stuff. The transporters that transport it. The Advertisers, insurance folks, and on and on that depend on SALES! How many sales do you get for higher priced items, that do not sell, and shops that close down because the stuff can not sell? And debt? NO DEBT IS CREATED!!!!!!!!! If I have a disposable dollar in my pocket, and buy a Chinese made good, and the dollar goes to a Chinaman there is no debt created. It is our GOVT that is in debt debt, and doesn't seem to care how much in debt they are. And what can a Chinaman do with the dollar he is now holding? In case you do not know, they have to invest the dollar back into the USA!!!! I'd welcome anything false that I just told you.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from dleurquin wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

I predict I will buy a bunch more fly fishing gear that I don't really need or use, but bulks-up my collection of stuff nicely.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Smithhammer wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

#7 is spot-on, Kirk. Kudos for being the one to say it outside of a bar or driftboat.

0 Good Comment? | | Report

Post a Comment

from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict Koldkut and I will fish together next year. I will land a muskie on a fly. TU and Halliburton will have a gun battle over oil drilling in Ohio. I will snag myself past the barb. Somebody, somewhere, will get smart and take advantage of a child's inherent love of fishing and market fly fishing gear for children. Ohio State will beat Michigan. The number of states banning felt will double. Romano will become the proud father of a very healthy baby boy and give him the middle name of "buckhunter". Cermele will seek revenge and out fish me next year. Paul will catch a monster trout on a fly and will appear on the front of F&S magazine. And last but not least, Fly Talk will have another great season with interesting blogs and informative post. Happy New Year to All.

+5 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Congrats Tim and Ellie! My granddaughter came into this world on 12/12/11. Makes you think double about what we leave our children. The future of fly fishing is ours to mold. How exciting is that?

+2 Good Comment? | | Report
from weedless97 wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict that Maine State Record Largemouth will be caught in Lake Damariscotta!

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from fflutterffly wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict I'll finally meet Deeter at IceOut 2012. That Romano will out do himself with new motivation. Sayfu will get more negative votes then in 2011, I'll change 1/2 back into positive. (sometimes he's right!) I predict I'll be learning more and more and more! And finally, I predict the world will not end or begin to end on Dec. 21, 2012.

More importantly, I wish you all the greatest of success, the most interesting of discussions, the best of heath, continuous fish and more adventures.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Levi Allen wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

1. Michigan will beat Ohio State. End of story. Ohio state will be rebuilding for a year or two. Great coach pick-up though.

2. I would love to see#6 come true, keep us updated on that one. I need to know these things when the wife gives me my allowance!

3. #5 is true. I have switched to all Ross rods. The only one I have broke was a 3wt that happened to run into a Coho Salmon. They are tuff rods that handle as good as any Sage I have every cast.

4. The robots wanna make chicken, it's thier hidden passion.

5. Last of all, the "end of the world" is "supposedly" going to happen, and I keep hearing it may be a "zombie apocolypse", time to stock up on some Hornady Zombie max ammo

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from buckhunter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

A remark concerning technology and the $1000 fly rod: When technology improves we will buy a $1000 fly rod for $500. When marketing improves we buy a $500 fly rod for $1000.

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Shannon Drawe wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

I love number 6! China-Mart folks, like myself, are beginning to understand that cheaper (spelled Chinese / Korean) is not better for America. Try keeping more money in the US and see what happens to our economy and world status. And if we go even a step further, and buy locally made, or locally grown produce - we don't just keep the money in the US, we keep it in our respective communities. My campaign slogan; Buy American 2012. The Chicken Fried Nation demands it!

+1 Good Comment? | | Report
from Blue Ox wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict that i'll learn how to tie my own flies- and maybe even get a day or two that i don't hook my hat or shirt...

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Blue Ox...Anyone can learn to tie them. It is how high you want your standards to be. How good of fly creations do you accept. Make the commitment, and you can easily do it. Fly casting can also be learned relatively easily. And again, you need to not only learn to make a tight looped cast fairly accurately, but proceed beyond that, and learn a few specialty fly presentation casts that go a long way to catching fish.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from ckRich wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Happy New Year, Deeter!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Hoski wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Thanks for the look into our future K.D.
Truthfully, aren't you concerned Fu may go for your job?

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I predict there will be an industry upswing in stillwater fly fishing with long switch rods with various line heads and types. The film tours will not have very many offerings that I will like since we've all seen every other guy out there fishing for fish that are un-atinable to most. The percentage of new fishers in the sport being introduced to trout will drop and the number throwing stillwater offerings for "rough" fish will increase in following. And yes, Buck and I will fish together, I predict that as well.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Koldkut wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

and.....I predict that I will see "A River Runs Through It" this year....

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from kirkdeeter wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I'm in agreement with almost every one of Buckhunter's predictions. Almost. (Romano and Ellie are having a girl.)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Joe Demalderis wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Happy New Year Kirk and congratulations to Tim!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Chad Miller wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

Deeter,
The 1000.00 mark as a production rod has already been done. Do you remember Richard Sanderson's Hardy Angel rod at 1400.00. He told me on a trip that the titanium parts were being made by some Russian machinist who was the fore most authority on titanium machining or something like that. Myself and Tim's best friend fished it together in the Bahamas. Nuff said
I am going to miss Richard!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

flutterfly...good to see you will get your feet on the ground this year. To continue the learning process, please understand you need to get good info to learn. Please let me know when I am wrong. I welcome that. No one seems to want to venture forth on that note.
And Michigan should win for several years anyway. The latest additional sanctions by the NCAA, and Meyer's said, "Were a punch in the gut..no bowl game, and 9 scholarships taken away...the kiss of death. Switch rods on still waters?...made for moving water to reposition your line. Don't see them as having any application on still waters. Want an 11ft rod in your small lake boat, or float, or pontoon boat? And the technical advancements in fly rods? Who is ahead of the curve on technology? SAGE is the leader...at the top of the curve.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

buckhunter...When the $1.000 rod can only be sold in the fly shops for $1,000, or you lose your right to carry them, then they will stay at $1,000 price point. When competition is allowed to take place, and other outlets can carry them, then the price will come way down.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Riverrat57 wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

#11. Louie will become so proficient at fly-fishing in 2012, that he won't want to do anything else and will promote the sport in the world of bass fishing whether the world of bass fishing likes it or not. Thanks Kirk for that "Little Red Book"!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Rhythm Rider wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

#10 is pretty funny. I predict Sayfu starts up his own blog somewhere (unless I've missed it). My condolences to Tim's 2012 fishing season, but I'm sure it'll be worth it. As for a $1000 rod!!!! Some people have more money, and fewer children than I. I'll stick with the under $200 crowd. As for the trade shows, they're not about doing business but getting hammered with others in your trade asking "where are the customers" or stating "complete waste of money and time....see you next year"? Thanks for the predictions, and flytalk.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Rythm Rider...HMMMM You just may have something there. Maybe call the blog..."Gettin it Right" I have visions of operating it like the Joe Pine radio show years ago. Anyone remember Joe Pine? It was the most popular show on the air, and led to other shows with that kinda "in your face" format. Someone in the audience would make a comment to Joe, and if it was an off the wall dimbulb comment, Joe would call them up to the docket, and ream the guy...verbally lambaste the guy. We'd get this fishin and hunting stuff right! No Mr. Nice guy! No pain, no gain. I may have to slap myself up side the head once in awhile. :)

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from backcast wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Sayfu a blogger? It'd be a blog with no followers, LOL! Fu's sphere of influence begins and ends here, commenting on what others have to say. He's a sidekick to the straight man at best, kind of like what Flavor Flave was to Chuck D, Ed Norton to Ralphie Boy. Then again, who knows? Fu's like that crazy uncle everybody has, spewing whackness to everyone's amusement. Go for it, Fu!

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Toner Mitchell wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

Thanks to #2, you will not see a bunch of #4 on the racks in fly shops. Rack space will be taken up by #5. Fly shops might make it in the end.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

backcast...no followers? Do you have any idea how many folks out there have a screw loose? And Shannon..Please! You are totally ECON 101 deficit. Ever see how full a WalMart parking lot is. Have a clue as to why? You want people paying how much more for the goods they need?..many on fixed incomes, or low incomes that desperately need them? When a product sells like they do in WalMart how many folks do you think benefit? Maybe the dock workers that unload the stuff. The transporters that transport it. The Advertisers, insurance folks, and on and on that depend on SALES! How many sales do you get for higher priced items, that do not sell, and shops that close down because the stuff can not sell? And debt? NO DEBT IS CREATED!!!!!!!!! If I have a disposable dollar in my pocket, and buy a Chinese made good, and the dollar goes to a Chinaman there is no debt created. It is our GOVT that is in debt debt, and doesn't seem to care how much in debt they are. And what can a Chinaman do with the dollar he is now holding? In case you do not know, they have to invest the dollar back into the USA!!!! I'd welcome anything false that I just told you.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from dleurquin wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

I predict I will buy a bunch more fly fishing gear that I don't really need or use, but bulks-up my collection of stuff nicely.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Smithhammer wrote 2 years 14 weeks ago

#7 is spot-on, Kirk. Kudos for being the one to say it outside of a bar or driftboat.

0 Good Comment? | | Report
from Sayfu wrote 2 years 15 weeks ago

I only tell you that you don't know what you are talking about when you demonstrate you do not know what you are talking about. Maybe in 2012 that will be minimize some.
Successful carp competitions..sounds like the industry may have found their competitive nitch...it ain't trout.
Our snow levels are down, and that is fine with me. We have enough water to hold us over for next year. Keeping water levels up over the Winter in a favorite section of the SF of mine will mean more fish come this season.
And fly gear getting competitive pricing over the net? Had to happen. I thought it would happen long ago. It has been price fixing having manufacturers tell the flyshops they have to sell their product at a price fixed by the mfger's, or they can't carry the product. And not allowing outlets to even carry their products. Tough economic times, and the mfgers have to move product.
More low price point product made in USA? I question that one, and how good it would be for America..but we will see.

-1 Good Comment? | | Report

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